photo credit Michael Lerzo, Union Recorder (mlerzophotography)

Logan Cook

On Wednesday night, the University of Georgia Bulldogs look for a repeat of the 1981 Sugar Bowl by beating Notre Dame in their first ever 12-team College Football Playoff matchup.

The Bulldogs (11-2) will take the field for the first time after battling Texas to the wire in an overtime SEC Championship that saw quarterback Carson Beck take his last college snap on a handoff to Trevor Etienne for the game-winner. Now, Beck will hand the ball off to his protege, Gunner Stockton.

Notre Dame (12-1) is, in my opinion, still the biggest question mark left in the college football playoffs. Statistically, Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the nation, and possible the best defense in the nation. But a subpar schedule and an ugly upset to Northern Illinois kept them out of the top four all season.

Notre Dame isn’t new to playoffs. The Irish made the 4-team playoff in 2018 and 2020 but failed to move past the opening round both times. A win would mark the first Notre Dame CFP victory. 

But the Irish have looked good this year. Very good, even. Their FEI rating ranks them third among D1 programs behind only Ohio State and Oregon (Georgia – 8th). The Irish defensive index ranks first (Georgia – 13th). Judging solely by those stats, one might assume Georgia should be the underdog, and with backup quarterback Gunner Stockton getting his first career start, Vegas almost agreed as the current spread sees Georgia as only a point and a half favorite over the Irish. 

Among real title contenders, Notre Dame has largely stayed out of the spotlight. While the SEC and BIG 10 dominated headlines and filled primetime broadcasts, the Irish have kept quiet and just played football. They opened up the season with a 23-13 win over 20th ranked Texas A&M. They handled both Army and Navy easily, beat Louisville by a touchdown, and won a shootout with USC to end the season. Last week, they beat Indiana in the opening round of the playoffs 27-17.

But none of those are comparable to an SEC schedule. Looking through the Irish schedule, Notre Dame’s toughest test came on the road at Texas A&M to open the season, a game where a sick Connor Weigman completed only 40% of passes and totaled a QBR of 54. I don’t say this to paint Notre Dame as a bad football team. But they don’t have as much experience on a national scale.

Georgia, on the other hand, will have the experience, the depth, the nerves, the composure, and the home field advantage (Dawg Nation travels better than any). Georgia will rely on their experience over an untested Notre Dame team. 

When asked about the matchup on Monday, Kirby Smart showed his respect for Notre Dame. “Their backups, their starters, the receiving core, their defensive line – they’re big,” Smart said. “And that’s what it starts with in the SEC. They have to have the size and girth because you have to take on these teams week in and week out that have great size. Notre Dame is built that way. What you see on the tape speaks louder than the paper does.

“They’ve had a tremendous season, and just an honor to be played with two great programs matched up against each other, which that’s what the College Football Playoff was meant to be. And where better to do it than in the Sugar Bowl where there’s been historic matchups, of not only these two teams, but a lot of teams.”

Georgia Offense – Welcome to the Gunner Show

Though he has hardly stepped foot on a college football field, Gunner Stockton is already building himself quite the lore. Hailing from Rabun Gap in the far northeast mountains of Georgia, Stockton comes from a long line of UGA ancestry. Both of his parents attended school there. His grandfather passed away from a heart attack during the 2010 Georgia/Florida matchup. Georgia red runs through his veins. 

In high school, Stockton broke the state records for career touchdowns and passing yards, beating Deshawn Watson and Trevor Lawrence respectively. In the pocket, he can stand in and get the ball out of his hands quickly, but his specialty is his ability to make plays on the run. While not the most agile, the dude will straight up run you over and hop right back up, just like he did on the second to last play of the SEC Championship Game when his helmet came off and Carson Beck replaced him.

Now, Stockton prepares for this game as a starter, the first time in his career that he will do so. When asked about his preparation, Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo praised his approach – “He’s approaching it like he has all season. I can’t say enough about the way he’s approaching every game. HIs day-in, day-out of how he approaches getting ready for the game as if he was the starter prepared him for this moment. If you asked me that last year, I don’t think he had that same mindset. For this game prep, things are centered around him and his strengths and what he does well. That’s how it is different from weeks before when it was centered around Carson. Now it’s centered around Gunner and what he does well.”

Kirby was asked about what Gunner brings to table on Monday. Smart replied, “Number one thing a quarterback has to have is decision making skills. He makes really good decisions. Number two thing for our quarterbacks is accuracy. He has accuracy… Athletic ability and talent probably takes over third, and he has those traits. All of the intangibles in terms of toughness, character embody what he was raised on… All the players play harder for him. I think he raises the skill level of everybody around him because of who he is.”

Despite the growing Gunner Stockton lore and fans’ dreams of glory, the fact remains that he will strap on his helmet for the first time as a starter on one of the biggest stages possible. Yes, he received invaluable experience in the SEC Championship game. But preparing for the game as the starter – going through first team reps as a starter – having your name plastered all over social media – There’s no doubt this game will be different for Stockton. 

Stockton’s inexperience nearly cost Georgia the SEC Championship after a failed attempt at throwing a pass away led to an easy interception late in the game. Fortunately, Texas wasn’t able to capitalize, and Gunner did more than enough to make up for the costly error. But the more throws Gunner has to make from the pocket, the more likely Notre Dame is to force havoc plays. 

The good news is Gunner doesn’t need to be the hero. With Georgia’s offensive line healthy, Georgia will look to pound the running game through Trevor Ettiene and Nate Frazier. Gunner will not need to sit in the pocket all day like Carson Beck and pick apart the Irish defense. If Gunner can force the Irish front to respect his athleticism and running ability, space will open for the plethora of playmakers Georgia has at their disposal.

Tough, Hardnose Defense for the Irish

Let me make one thing clear: Notre Dame has as much speed as any SEC program, especially on defense. Against Indiana, Notre Dame blitzed freely, sending five or six pass rushers the majority of the game, something I don’t expect to change in this game against an inexperienced quarterback. Marcus Freeman and DC AL Golden will make Gunner Stockton uncomfortable through stunts, blitzes, shell coverages, robber concepts, you name it. Expect a lot of one on one coverage on the outside as well, something that a Lawson Luckie’s athelticism or, god forbid, Arian Smith’s speed (and hands?) can take advantage of. 

Notre Dame will be without their sack leader in defensive tackle Rylie Mills. Replacing him will be a mix of RD FR Armel Mukam and RS JR Gabriel Rubio. Outside linebacker Jack Kiser anchors the linebacker unit and leads the team in tackles for the season. Middle linebacker Drayk Bowen is a hard nose, downhill, run-stopping force as well. In the secondary, Notre Dame has been without their star cornerback Benjamin Morrison since a season ending injury in October, but safety Xavier Watts leads the team in interceptions with 6, and Leonard Moore is a true lockdown corner. True freshman and athletic freak Bryce Young will play a lot of downs as well, and he could easily be an x-factor in the turnover game with his freakishly long wingspan. Young is the only 5* HS prospect on Notre Dame’s roster (for whatever that is worth). Xavier Watts anchors the secondary as the senior leader and leader in interceptions 

Notre Dame – Ground and Pound Offense

Notre Dame’s offense is led by the very experienced Riley Leonard. In three seasons at Duke, Leonard passed for 4000+ yards and rushed for another 1000+. At Notre Dame, it has been a balance of running and passing that has brought Leonard success. With 17 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns, Leonard will rely on read options and designed runs to break down the Georgia front. As a passer, Leonard doesn’t have elite arm talent, but he does have brains and brawn. He gets the ball out of his hands quickly, avoids sacks, and manages the offense well. While there isn’t a single name that dominates the receiving core, Leonard spreads the ball around to multiple receivers and tight ends, most notably TE Mitchell Evans and WR Beaux Collins. 

As a runner, Leonard will surprise you. He’s big. He isn’t fast. But his awareness and toughness allow him to find pockets in the defense and exploit them. Watch this play from the Indiana game to see my point –

Complementing Leonard is a one-two punch of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love will be a high draft pick next season and flashes NFL speed and explosiveness. Love has recorded 16 rushing touchdowns of his own this season. Also watch for Aneyas Williams on third downs out of the backfield. 

Notre Dame’s offense will look to pound the run game. With a heavy emphasis on RPO, Riley Leonard excels at finding the areas of the field to exploit and reads the defense well. Linebacker contains the edge? Hand it off to Love or get the ball out to a receiver to make a play. Linebacker crashes in? Keep it and make a play with your feet. 

Leonard has weapons at his disposal, too. The Irish have three running backs that average over 7 yards a carry. Jordan Fiason is a playmaker on the outside and on special teams. At 6’3, Beaux Collins will win one-on-ones. Tight end Mitchell Evans has sure hands as well.  

Notre Dame averages only 27 passing plays a game, ranking them 100th among FBS teams and only averages 7.3 yards per completion, but their run game can lull secondaries in and catch them off balance. 

On defense, Georgia enters the game without any major absences. Jalen Walker and Chaz Chambliss will play key roles this game in containing the outside edge and pressuring Riley Leonard. Mykel Williams looks to explode back into the highlight reels after getting an important three weeks to rest his ankle that has continued to limit him all season. 

The front Seven of Georgia will be key as Glenn Schuman will stack the box and try to keep the ball inside the tackles. Expect a lot of one high safety with the likes of Malaki Starks, Dan Jackson, and K.J. Bolden to play on the line of scrimmage and attack Notre Dame downhill. Dayton Everette and Daniel Harris will be responsible for one-on-one man coverage and preventing the shot plays, especially on short yardage downs. 

Cook’s Prediction – 

Too many five stars everywhere. Georgia breaks loose in the second half to beat Notre Dame 38-17.

Gunner Stockton will likely throw it fewer than 25 times and Etienne and Frazier both rush for 80+ yards. Add another 40 from Stockton, and a 200+ rushing game leads to the Dawgs heading to Miami to face Boise State or Penn State. Since we are in the prediction portion of the night, I’ll throw in that Boise wins 24-21.